THE MOOD OF THE PEOPLE
The tidal wave of victory
by Democrats at the polls on November 4th was the result of nine things. Those things are; 1)
The American public becoming more and more convinced the war in Iraq is a
Viet Nam like
abyss. 2) George Bush's very low popularity which is closely tied to item #1.
3) Obama excited and empower America's young and America's African-American population. 4) Republicans have lost their "brand" of fiscal discipline and restrained government. They appeared to spend money like
drunken sailors which is what they always accused Democrats of doing. 5) Obama raised a huge amount of money and was able to buy vast amounts of print and broadcast advertising. 6) People were excited about Obama and happy to support and vote for him, similar to Bobby Kennedy in 1968 and Ronald Reagan in 1980 and '84. 7) People questioned McCain's judgement when he suspended his campaign to come to Washington to "solve" the financial mess and his selection of Sarah palin as his VP. 8) Obama ran a very organized and well desiplined campaign. And MOST IMPORTANTLY 9) Americans voted, as they always do, for change when they see their pocketbook threatened.
The question now is how will he govern. Will he recognize, as Bill Clinton did, that America is a centerist nation and govern accordingly. Or will he govern from the hard left. Governing from the hard left is possible because 1) he has the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate and 2) he owes the trial lawyers, labor unions and others who worked hard to get him to the Illinois Senate, the U.S. Senate and the White House. Who he appoints to his Cabinet and his initial legislative agenda will give us our best clues as to how he will govern.
Should he and Congress govern from what voters consider a far left or too liberal position, look for voters to vote in lots on Republicans in 2010.
U.S. HOUSE AND SENATE ELECTIONS
The
month before the 2008 election, 75% of voters said they felt America is headed "on the wrong track" and voted accordingly. Pre-election polling showed that if Obama won by 6% or more, there would be huge Democrat gains in the House and Senate which happened. The Senate races in MN and AK are still to close to call. The run-off race in GA should be won by Saxby Chamblis because he got 110,000 more votes than Jim Martin in the November election and African-Americans will have reduced incentive to go to the polls because Barack Obama will not be on the ballot.
The many newly elected members of the House and Senate who rode Barack Obama's coat tails to victory will find a very different set of circumstances in 2 or 6 years when they run for re-election. Barack Obama will not be on the ballot to help them. This happened in 1986 when many new Senators who rode Ronald Reagan's coat tails into office in 1980 lost their re-election when they ran without Reagan on the ballot.
This election was quite different than the 2000 and 2004 elections. In those two elections, 47 of the 50 states voted the same way both times. Only New Hampshire, New Mexico and Iowa voted one way in 2000 and differentaly in 2004. This year, 10 states turned from "red" to "blue. Maryland is the only state south of the Mason-Dixon line that is a solid blue state. When Obama won VA, NC and FL, in part because of the sizable African-American population in South, it was clear early in the evening that there was no way McCain could win.
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